John Baker arrived first to the gold coast village of Unalakleet this morning. Along with taking home $2,500 in gold nuggets from Wells Fargo, by arriving first to the Bering Sea Baker also claims a very strong chance at winning this year’s Iditarod. As we mentioned on the podcast last night, many – but not all of the mushers to arrive first into Unalakleet have gone on to win the entire race. Things really got interesting though when you look at the statics for the next checkpoint, Shaktoolik. The online race archives go back to 2001, 10 years ago – and what they show is a solid trend where every musher to reach Shaktoolik first in the last 10 years has gone on to win the Iditarod. Historically, if a team is going to arrive to Unalakleet first but not win the race, it’s because someone else who arrived after they did, left earlier and took the lead. With a decent head start on the trail to Shaktoolik this morning, Baker increased his chances of becoming an Iditarod Champion for the first time.
While history is a good indicator, Baker is far from guaranteed a victory in Nome. Ramey Smyth, who arrived to Unalakleet 2.5 hours after Baker, is well known for being able to bust out some fast runs, especially on the coast where he has claimed the “Fastest time from Safety to Nome” award several times. If anyone can catch Baker, its Ramey. Looking at run times for the last few checkpoints, Smyth was slightly faster than Baker on the 90 mile trip into Unalakleet and had the best out of the top 5 who are in so far. From Eagle Island to Kaltag, which is 70 miles, Smyth had the best time out of the entire top 15, and managed to shave an hour off of Baker’s lead, however Smyth took a longer rest at the checkpoint than Baker did, coming up neutral.
That need to rest more after faster runs is what will make it tough for Ramey to make up those outstanding 2+ hours between him and Baker, but if he can do it; continue to run faster while also cutting his rest time a little bit, there is a good chance we will see an upset on the coast and buck the trend from the last 10+ years.
Let’s also not forget to look at Hans Gatt and Sebastian Schnuelle who arrived into Unalakleet 3, and 3.5 hours behind Baker respectively. It is still possible that one of them could make a daring move or two that would decrease the lead that Baker is currently holding steady. One of the ways to do that would be for Smyth, Gatt, or Schnuelle to leave Unalakleet having taken a shorter rest than Baker, but at 4 hours Baker had already cut his rest down pretty good for someone who most likely did not camp on the trail from Kaltag… it was one of the shortest I could find at the speed he came in at. There is a small possibility that he plans on resting some more on the way to Shaktoolik, there is a new shelter cabin about half way.
The map below (put together by Iditablog’s resident Iditarod veteran, Eric Rogers) shows some of the options that teams have for resting between both Kaltag and Unalakleet, and then Unalakleet and Shaktoolik. Both “tripod flats” and “Old Woman Cabin” have been popular in the past for teams all along the race to rest at before hitting the coast.




John Baker is leading Iditarod 2011 so far – how did he get there? We break down the race over the last few days, while also looking ahead to the impending arrival at Unalakleet. We also spoke with KICY’s Lon Swanson about one of the biggest cultural events for Western Alaska that happened today along the Iditarod Trail. All that and lots more.


Arriving to the first checkpoint on the Yukon River of Anvik first in the Iditarod means winning a prize that feels like its a reward out of the CBS show survivor, where the recipient is treated to luxury for a few moments while in a very non-luxurious setting. Hugh Neff was that first musher this morning, getting to the banks of the mighty Yukon River at 5:26am. Two hours after Neff arrived a crowd of mushers had joined him. John Baker was only 15 minutes behind the race leader, Mackey a half hour after that, followed by Ray Redington, Martin Buser, and Sonny Lindner.


















































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Josh Rogers - March 13, 2011
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